Wednesday, November 4

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WORLD SERIES

Philadelphia (9-5) at N.Y. Yankees (10-4)

The World Series shifts to back to Yankee Stadium where the Yankees will try once again to wrap up their record 27th world title when they send Andy Pettitte (17-8, 4.06 ERA) to the mound on three days' rest for Game 6 while the Phillies counter with Pedro Martinez (5-2, 3.28).

Facing elimination, Philadelphia came out swinging in Game 5 on Monday, jumping out to 6-1 lead after three innings and holding on for an 8-6 home victory. Chase Utley hit two more home runs giving him five in this World Series and Cliff Lee picked up his second series win despite allowing a postseason-high five runs in seven innings.

Philadelphia is now 20-8 in the playoffs since the beginning of last year's run to the World Series title. Additionally, the Phillies are on positive runs 5-2 on the highway, 7-3 in playoff road games, 11-5 as an underdog, 9-3 as a road dog, 37-18 against left-handed starters, 38-15 after a day off and 4-0 on Wednesday. On the downside, Charlie Manuel's squad has lost 12 of 17 interleague games (all versus the A.L. East).

New York, looking for its 27th championship overall and first since 2000, had a three-game losing skid snapped on Monday. Still, the Yankees enter Game 6 on a plethora of positive runs, including 51-21 overall, 42-11 at home, 6-1 in playoff home games, 9-3 in World Series home games, 9-1 as a playoff favorite, 8-2 in interleague play (all against the N.L. East), 59-26 when hosting National League opponents, 19-7 following a defeat, 47-18 against right-handed starters and 7-0 in interleague play against righties.

The Yankees are 13-1 all-time when taking a 3-1 lead in the World Series. The last time a team overcame a 3-1 World Series deficit was the Royals in 1985, but New York has lost three straight games just twice since the All-Star break.

These teams have now split eight meetings this season, including a three-game interleague series in the Bronx in May. Going back to 1999, the Yankees are 11-7 against the Phillies. The visitor has won nine of the last 13 head-to-head matchups.

Making just his second start since Sept. 30, Martinez held the Yankees to three runs on six hits over six innings in Game 2 of this series at Yankee Stadium on Thursday, but he lost 3-1 as he was outdueled by A.J. Burnett. Including a Game 2 start at Dodger Stadium in the NLCS, Martinez has given up three runs on eight hits in 13 postseason innings (2.08 ERA), walking two and striking out 11. However, the Phillies lost both games by scores of 3-1 and 2-1 after going 8-1 in the veteran right-hander's first nine starts this year. Martinez has allowed three runs or less in eight straight starts and 10 of 11 since making his Phillies debut on Aug. 12.

Martinez is now 3-2 with a 4.28 ERA in six road starts this year, 6-3 with a 3.22 ERA in 15 career playoff games (13 starts), 12-14 with a 3.43 ERA in 39 lifetime appearances (38 starts) against New York (playoffs included) and 8-6 with a 3.38 ERA in 20 games (18 starts) in the Bronx.

Pettitte improved to 3-0 in this postseason on Saturday, guiding New York to an 8-5 victory in Philadelphia in Game 3, despite yielding four runs on five hits and three walks with seven strikeouts in six innings. New York is now 3-1 behind Pettitte in the playoffs, with the lefty giving up nine runs (all earned) on 22 hits in 25 innings (3.24 ERA). Prior to Saturday's six-inning effort, Pettitte had gone exactly 6 1/3 innings in his first three postseason outings.

With Pettitte on the hill, New York is on incredible runs of 11-4 overall, 79-38 at home, 81-38 as a home favorite, 20-8 as a chalk overall, 7-1 in interleague play and 29-9 on Wednesday. Including one solid playoff outing against the Angels, the 37-year-old is 7-4 with a 4.40 ERA in 17 starts in new Yankee Stadium this season. The all-time leader in postseason victories, Pettitte is 17-9 with a 3.88 ERA in 39 career playoff starts, and with the Game 3 victory in Philadelphia, he's 3-2 with a 3.97 ERA in eight career starts against the Phillies.

All three games in Philadelphia flew over the posted total after the first five meetings between these teams this season all in the Bronx stayed under the posted price.

The Yankees are now 5-2-1 "over" in their last eight overall in this postseason, but otherwise they're still on "under" rolls of 35-17-3 at home (6-0-1 at home in these playoffs), 12-4-1 as a favorite, 6-2-1 after a day off, 17-9 in interleague play, 4-0 in interleague home games, 16-7 in the World Series, 7-0 in World Series home games, 8-3-2 against right-handed starters and 6-0 on Wednesday. Finally, behind Pettitte, the under is on runs of 55-25-3 overall, 10-3 at home, 12-3-1 against the National League (10-3 vs. the N.L. East) and 46-21-1 when Pettitte is favored.

On the flip side, Philadelphia carries "over" trends of 21-6-2 overall (6-1 last seven), 9-2-1 in these playoffs, 5-1-1 against the A.L. East, 7-3 as an underdog, 5-2-1 as a playoff pup, 5-1 against left-handed starters and 5-1 after a day off. However, the under is 5-2 in Martinez's last seven starts.

ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES

Al DeMarco, General Manager of ATS Edge.com, is a 25-year veteran of the handicapping industry who is also the featured handicapping analyst on Comcast Sports TV in New York and Chicago and a regular contributor on Fox Sports, MSNBC and The Sporting News. Read his Daily Blog for his gambling insight, tips and observations at ATSedge.com